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View Full Version : Pot odds confusion!


bridgey321
01-11-2009, 11:08 PM
Hey quick question i'm not that much of a mathmatical player but use some basic pot odds. I'm just not sure i'm doing it right, can some one tell me if this is the right way!?

E.g.
1. I flop a heart flush draw and my opponent moves all in for 600, there is 1000 already in the pot:
- I calculate my outs as the 9 remaining hearts in the deck
- This gives me roughly a 36% chance of hitting (say 1/3 chance for simplicity
- Therefore do I require odds equal to or better than 2 to 1 to make the call?
- So here is would a fold be the right move because i am putting in 600 to only win 1000 (so 2/3 times i would lose my 600 = -1200 and only 1/3 times i would win the 1000 = +1000 -----> -1200 + 1000 = -200 in the long run)

E.g.
2. I have 10 outs after the turn = approximate chance of hitting is 20% so do I therefore require better than 4 to 1 to call (ie in a pot of 1000 i should only be calling up to a 200 chip bet)

Obviously these are pretty simple examples and dont take into account any implied odds or anything but I just wanted to make sure I was getting the concept and simple calculations right! Cheers xx

thefairy
01-11-2009, 11:16 PM
eg 1, theres 1600 in the pot. his counts. so you would call.

you are forgetting to include your opponants bet into the pot for both.

SirJonnyP
01-11-2009, 11:21 PM
i'm ****e with odds too, but in your first example i'm pretty certain that your chances of hitting another heart are less than a third?

Gerrard48LFC
01-11-2009, 11:30 PM
if you have 4 cards to a flush on the flop, then the chances of you hitting a flush on the turn or river is 1/3. so you need to be getting pot odds of 2-1 on the flop. So if you are on the BTN and the SB bets pot and its folded round to you with a FD then you are getting 2-1 for your FD.

as i understand it...

bizkit
01-11-2009, 11:56 PM
Like thefairy said you didn't take into account what your opponent put into the pot. Also, 1/3 is an extremely pessimistic appraisal of your likelihood of winning. If you have 9 clean outs its typically closer to 39%. That 6% basically turns the first situation from a fold into a call. Of course your opponent could have a higher flush draw or you could have more outs if you have an over with your flush draw and having straight draws with it also improves your winning %. Typically, I wouldn't fold majority of my flush draws to a lead out all in of 60% the pot on the flop.

bridgey321
01-12-2009, 06:49 AM
Oh yeah, i forgot that on the first one, when I have a call online I just look at the pot size as it says by the dealer :thumbsup:

ccottis
01-12-2009, 01:49 PM
Anything less than pot (all-in if they have chips behind you will probably have to fold on the turn if you miss but you can also win more so it gets much more complicated) is a call with the nut flush draw if the board isn't paired. As you have to call 1xstarting pot to win 2xstarting pot so if you win 1/3 you end up winning 2 once and losing 1 twice