OESFD on flop facing overshove deep.

[Litellio]

Do we have equity v unknown here?


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $91.35
Hero (SB): $46.00
BB: $4.25
CO: $59.05

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with :3s :5s
CO raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.25) :Jh :2s :4s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, CO raises to $55

I don't mind the variance.

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

You should probably fold due to the rake the stove came out like this

Hand 0: 48.749% 48.75% 00.00% 18822 0.00 { 5s3s }
Hand 1: 51.251% 51.25% 00.00% 19788 0.00 { JJ+, 44, 22, AJs, AJo }

so even against a strong value range you're ok here

[Gerrard48LFC]

Does he really shove a set like this in position?

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

Does he really shove a set like this in position?

I would be more worried about Asjs

[Mike]

I don't care. call or fold. but call because we have a straight flush draw.

[Pates]

Yeah, I think you have to change your hand reange donkey. He's never got a set here. I would imagine something like QJ/KJ/AJ/QQ/KK/AA and of course the nfd. But I'd call because it's far more likely he just has top pair. As long as you're rolled to lose a 400bb pot then it's fine to call imo. If he flips an FD then you're very unlucky but not drawing dead.

If he saw how deep you were (which he probably didn't) he'd not shove a flush draw and he'd not shove a set. Personally it's overpair or top pair.

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

Does he really shove a set like this in position?


Yeah, I think you have to change your hand reange donkey. He's never got a set here. I would imagine something like QJ/KJ/AJ/QQ/KK/AA and of course the nfd. But I'd call because it's far more likely he just has top pair. As long as you're rolled to lose a 400bb pot then it's fine to call imo. If he flips an FD then you're very unlucky but not drawing dead.

If he saw how deep you were (which he probably didn't) he'd not shove a flush draw and he'd not shove a set. Personally it's overpair or top pair.

Why can't this be a set you've shown a lot/ or at least some strength and he would hate for a spade to kill his action. Giving him a range of TP and the NFD is just awful and at best, wishful thinking. I think my range does need some tweaking, but I would be more inclined to add lower draws than lower made hands.

[Mike]

Just occured to me why the call pre??

Good point. calling pre seems spewy.

Also, I think this can be sets in his range.

[bizkit]

Well if you're in the mood to be in a flippish situation for 400 bb's go for it(I don't really like these types of high variance plays especially calling). I don't think I'm calling most opponents. If it's someone like me you're probably facing top set or middle set a lot more than you'd think. If it's someone spewy there's often going to be better situations than this to get it in against them.

[eleanor60]

firstly I'm not sure what your expecting to hit if you call with 5-3 sooted, surely that flop is probably the best you can expect.

If we factor in the guys min raise pre, it may hel us work out his range a bit better. Would you min raise CO with a high pair? Im not too sure, depends if he always raises this much. Anyway I tend to thin that he could have done it with low to mid pairs, which factors the possibility of trips, or up to 88, mayb 99.
Also it could be suited connectors, but seems odd for him to overbet a flush draw here.

I really feel the overbet screams fear of you catchin your draw, as it is a draw heavy board, and yes it could be an overpair, but like I said it seems an odd path to min raise pre, but cannot be ruled out.
The most likely to me seems to be set of deuces of fours, however another hand that is highly possible is AJ spades.
V trip 2 or 4s your stil 42.12% to win
V AJ spade ur 25.5%
V midd pair your 56%
Top pair with flush draw your 31%
top pair no draw your 56%

(AA your pretty much flipping, unles he holds the A sp which tkes away a lot of outs, v KK ur a slight fav...
sooted con (78 for argument sake your 42%)

the likelyhood of each hands in my opinion,
Set-40% your 42% = 16.8% win
AJ spade - 20% your 25%= 5%
Overpair no spade- 4% your 50% = 2%
Overpair spade-4% your 40% = 1.6%
Sooted conns 3%- your 42% = 1.26
Mid pair 7% your 56% =3.92
top pair flush draw 10% your 31% =3.1
Just top pair 6% your 56% =3.36
Complete bluff 2% your 68 % =1.36
JJ set 2% your 42% =.84
Nut flush draw 3% your 39% = 1.17

Totals to you winning 40.41% of the time which solves nothing as it leaves us with a borderline decision still :P

Personally I call all day long if it works out of 38% so yeah

[Litellio]

Good point. calling pre seems spewy.

We're 200bb+ deep and he's min raised me. Are you joking?


Also, I think this can be sets in his range.

Rly? When have you ever seen a set played like this?

[Pates]

Well I had your exact hand on that exact board except it was :2s :4s :4h and I was playing HU. On that board, the guy 2-bet shoved me with quads. I called and turned straight flush. People do stupid things, don't put him off a set here.

[ccottis]

His big shove looks a lot like :As:Ks or :As:Qs which both have you crushed. I think he has NFD ~50% of the time here and top pair+ the rest so I'd lean towards fold.

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

Rly? When have you ever seen a set played like this?

Enough that I've learned to account for sets, don't get me wrong people will show up with worse like more than 50% of the time it's just foolish to discount sets.

Put it this way if you had 44 in villains position what would you do?

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

His big shove looks a lot like :As:Ks or :As:Qs which both have you crushed. I think he has NFD ~50% of the time here and top pair+ the rest so I'd lean towards fold.

60/40 no better than a set, you do have 13 outs against 6 anti outs.

[Litellio]

Enough that I've learned to account for sets, don't get me wrong people will show up with worse like more than 50% of the time it's just foolish to discount sets.

Put it this way if you had 44 in villains position what would you do?

Play it like I play every other set, but I'm not shoving.

[Mike]

Play it like I play every other set, but I'm not shoving.

Villain is bad - he min raised.