Raise for Value?

[Pates]

Seat 1: mstrbball ($101.35 in chips)
Seat 2: pates11380 ($152.65 in chips)
Seat 3: DaMay85 ($101.50 in chips)
Seat 4: TAnf07 ($18.50 in chips)
Seat 5: electronlib ($162.55 in chips)
Seat 6: Borusse_58 ($96.15 in chips)
Borusse_58: posts small blind $0.50
mstrbball: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pates11380 [:6c :6s]
pates11380: raises $2.50 to $3.50
DaMay85: folds
TAnf07: folds
electronlib: folds
Borusse_58: folds
mstrbball: calls $2.50
*** FLOP *** [:Tc :2d :Qd]
mstrbball: checks
pates11380: bets $5.15
mstrbball: calls $5.15
*** TURN *** [Tc 2d Qd] [:Jc]
mstrbball: checks
pates11380: checks
*** RIVER *** [Tc 2d Qd Jc] [:6h]
mstrbball: bets $12
pates11380: raises $21 to $33
mstrbball: raises $59.70 to $92.70 and is all-in
pates11380: calls $59.70
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mstrbball: shows xx
pates11380: shows [:6c :6s] (three of a kind, Sixes)

After the raise it's pretty hard to get away from. This guy is pretty damn poor if he plays K9 with this line and the same goes for AK. I figure he can bet the river with loads of different 2pairs or set of 2s that we have beat.

Raise/call? Too nitty to smooth?

[thefairy]

lol wuuuuuut.snap snap snap raise. puke and pay off to the shove. soome tards are going to say fold on the end btw.

[thefairy]

I've had the swingiest day today and it's all been in the red. Finishing up now 4 buyins down. ****ing pissed off if I'm honest. Every single hand I lose money on it's because some rediculous card comes on the turn or river to absolutely crush my hand. Twice I've rivered sets and still been behind and had to pay off the luckiest slow player around.

fold on end imo

[Mike]

Did he have 89? :(

[bizkit]

9d8d makes a lot of sense.

I'm not going to comment on the river dynamics without a player profile.

[thefairy]

9d8d makes a lot of sense.

I'm not going to comment on the river dynamics without a player profile.

so how would you play an unknown? god i bet you're one of them people who use quote signs with their fingers and own a filofax.

[SirJonnyP]

so how would you play an unknown? god i bet you're one of them people who use quote signs with their fingers and own a filofax.

i don't reckon so, that sort of person would use teletext over the internet. it is a much more reliable source of information :paranoid:

[Pates]

9d8d makes a lot of sense.

I'm not going to comment on the river dynamics without a player profile.
Would you raise the river though? And once raised, are you calling?

[Mike]

Would you raise the river though? And once raised, are you calling?

yes and yes

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

Can't he have a QJ type of hand who thinks he's owning your overpair. I mean I do see hands that have you beat here after the 3rd raise I also see hands that you beat.

Board: Qd Tc 2d Jc 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 8 0.00 { JJ-TT, 22, Kd9d, QJs, 9d8d, QJo }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 6c6s }

looking good pates, in b4 Little claims that this is a ridiculous hand range.

[bridgey321]

Definately raise imo, so many 2 pair hands we can get value from.

[nickstrick1]

Pokerstove ftw george!

[Mike]

Pokerstove ftw george!

If you don't realise the value of pokerstove it's your own loss and frankly a quite stupid loss at that. Stop taking the piss out of him for using it.

[thefairy]

If you don't realise the value of pokerstove it's your own loss and frankly a quite stupid loss at that. Stop taking the piss out of him for using it.

i think its quite a rediculous useless programme because, if you're that good at hand ranges then why on earth use it? if you can put people on accurate hand ranges you don't need it, plus whose to say what percentage of time you get morons like the ones pateman seems to come accross all the time?

and no i will not stop taking the piss out of him for using it in every thread in every scenario

[Mike]

i think its quite a rediculous useless programme because, if you're that good at hand ranges then why on earth use it? if you can put people on accurate hand ranges you don't need it, plus whose to say what percentage of time you get morons like the ones pateman seems to come accross all the time?

and no i will not stop taking the piss out of him for using it in every thread in every scenario

You know that sound you make when you put your tongue infront of your teeth along your lower lip? Yeah, i just made it. You've used the exact same argument in another thread and you were told why it's wrong. :clap:

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

i think its quite a rediculous useless programme because, if you're that good at hand ranges then why on earth use it? if you can put people on accurate hand ranges you don't need it, plus whose to say what percentage of time you get morons like the ones pateman seems to come accross all the time?

and no i will not stop taking the piss out of him for using it in every thread in every scenario

I have to say this is a bit backwards, pokerstove doesn't put people on ranges the user does. All stove does is to calculate your overall equity of a range v range, or hand v range, or hand v hand (pre,flop,turn and river). It's a kin to saying a calculator is a useless tool because all it does is the horsework of computing the numbers, whilst any competent user could figure it out himself if he's good at arithmetic. That might be true but it is tool of convienence, one which there is no obvious advantage to refusing it.

Incidentally to all those stove haters out there, do you dry your clothes with a mangle because assuming competency there is no need for a tumble dryer?

[Gerrard48LFC]

I have to say this is a bit backwards, pokerstove doesn't put people on ranges the user does. All stove does is to calculate your overall equity of a range v range, or hand v range, or hand v hand (pre,flop,turn and river). It's a kin to saying a calculator is a useless tool because all it does is the horsework of computing the numbers, whilst any competent user could figure it out himself if he's good at arithmetic. That might be true but it is tool of convienence, one which there is no obvious advantage to refusing it.


hear hear!

[thefairy]

I have to say this is a bit backwards, pokerstove doesn't put people on ranges the user does. All stove does is to calculate your overall equity of a range v range, or hand v range, or hand v hand (pre,flop,turn and river). It's a kin to saying a calculator is a useless tool because all it does is the horsework of computing the numbers, whilst any competent user could figure it out himself if he's good at arithmetic. That might be true but it is tool of convienence, one which there is no obvious advantage to refusing it.

Incidentally to all those stove haters out there, do you dry your clothes with a mangle because assuming competency there is no need for a tumble dryer?

NO I DONT USE A MANGLE I USE A WOMAN.

2ndly i understand you put the ranges in, so thats where the flaws lie, this is my point! if you are so **** hot at putting people on exact ranges you wudnt be playing nl2.

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

NO I DONT USE A MANGLE I USE A WOMAN.

Poor her, how do you use a woman to dry your clothes? I get how to get a woman to dry your clothes but to actually use her to do so seems a bit harsh IMO.

Do you pick the woman at random, or do you have predatory system in place to choose which woman you will use to dry your clothes?

2ndly i understand you put the ranges in, so thats where the flaws lie, this is my point! if you are so **** hot at putting people on exact ranges you wudnt be playing nl2.

This is just a fail of a flame, if I were that bothered about it, do you think I would have told you about it?

Couldn't I be great at pattern recognition, and suck at maths at which point pokerstove would be a vital tool DUCY?

[thefairy]

it relies on its user being good at poker imo, which is a bit dangerous. and ts not a flame its a statement of truth? if you were that good and this tool is so good why ater 2 or 3 years of poker are you playing nl 2.

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

it relies on its user being good at poker imo, which is a bit dangerous. and ts not a flame its a statement of truth?

It's usefulness does increase with the ability of its user, but that's true of a lot of things. That wasn't the flame it was the Ad hominem of the NL2 comment.

if you were that good and this tool is so good why ater 2 or 3 years of poker are you playing nl 2.

Because I've probably played less than 20,000 cash game hands in my life. I've made my money at STT's and MTT's Mark, not at cash games. After about 1500 hands at NL10 I came to realise that I had more leaks (mostly in big pots) than the Titanic. So I've gone to NL2 to fix the leaks and get paid 2.5ptbb/100 at NL25 for my troubles, I'm still noticing the leaks. I think " Man I leave too much money on the table with the best of it" or "man that call was leaky", "why did I do that?".

It also allows me to experiment comfortably with my playing styles, at the moment I'm quite liking a 25/18 setup vs most of my opponents, who are quite **** at post-flop which is where I feel my edge is greatest in these games.

Edit:It's also great fun to rape a game 30ptbb/100, didn't you say I should see the lighter side of my hobby?

[bizkit]

so how would you play an unknown? god i bet you're one of them people who use quote signs with their fingers and own a filofax.

Well, I figured since villain has played over 700,000 hands on stars at $.50/$1 or $1/$2 that maybe OP would have a read on him.

Depending on how nitty he is it may change my line as I think this is borderline(raising vs calling). I'm definitely not calling the shove if I do raise, its essentially a bluff catcher.

[Mike]

lol since my last post this thread made me piss myself.

[bizkit]

Well, I'm not trying to enter the flame war but I sort of see where Fairy is coming from. We've sort of put the guy on what is a somewhat unrealistic range of hands then said we have 60% equity vs it so raising the river then calling a shove should be right?

Here's my full analysis:
First off on the villain...he's played 518k hands at $1/$2 short handed winning at 1.48 bb/100 and 195k hands at $.5/$1 and won at 2.03 bb/100. So if anything we're not playing a novice postflop player. Additionally, he seems fairly aggressive on the river but fairly tight preflop.

To me there's a lot of hands he can make the initial river bet with. So we can eliminate folding as an option simply because we can easily call profitably. So, it comes down to raising vs calling.

Putting QJo in his "go broke 3bet all in" range is crazy IMO. Since he's tighter than 81.3% of the population preflop(source PTR) I would say its likely he's folding this hand most of the time preflop. Additionally, I would say there's more combinations of AK in his range than QJ. Yes, at least some of the time he's 3bet'ing preflop. If there's not much history between the two of you I'm sometimes flatting with hands like AK,QQ-TT simply because I dislike the situations facing a 4bet or my 3bet getting cold called put me in a lot more than just cold calling the initial preflop. I think we can fully eliminate Kd9d from his range as well.

From the villain's perspective(Since he's a 1-2 pt bb/100 winner over a very large sample size I'm going to assume he is a capable thinking player.) the only hand that makes sense to make this particular raise on the river after checking the board on the turn is exactly 66. Because its a two suited highly connected board any hand we're checking to control the pot we're not raising on the river as a 6 blanks them. If someone can find another hand that makes any sense besides a bluff as the Hero I'd like to know.

So if we get 3bet on the river I think his range looks like this:
AKo: Of the 12 combinations at the start of the hand I'd say I eliminate about 9. Maybe 1/4th the time he's going to play this hand weird by cold calling preflop then calling a cbet OOP.
9d8d: It's a pretty loose call for this guy preflop but everything else makes a lot of sense so I'm going to give this 1/2 a combination.
QQ-TT: Of the 9 combinations I'd eliminate about 7. These hands could all possibly re-raise preflop. Additionally, most of them(QQ,TT) would not check call the flop.
Misplayed 22,QJo,QJs etc.: I really think he calls over raising here.
Bluff: It's pretty unlikely you have anything but 66, so villain can represent a bigger hand here but he has to think you're going to fold a set you made on the river a good portion of the time. I'll add one combo for a bluff or essentially a bluff in a misplayed big hand.

So combination totals:
AK(3)
9d8d(1/2)
QQ-TT(2)
Bluff/22,QJo,QJs(1)

So we're probably only winning this pot with this action 1 in 6.5.
The quicker he shoved the more you're going to see AK here simply because he doesn't have to evaluate the hand beyond "wow this guy raised the river and I have the nuts". If he took a while he's more likely to have the other hands because he'd need to evaluate for a few seconds before figuring out you probably had exactly 66. The quick push read is a lot more valid(he could time bank with the nuts) because its likely the only hand he can shove quickly unless he's evaluated the hand deeply before betting the river. Either way if you raised this river you should fold to the 3bet but more so if the push was quick.

All this doesn't really answer the initial question should we raise the river. I'm leaning towards just calling here vs this opponent. There's maybe 5 combinations of value hands that can pay this off(QJs, 22). But, honestly 22 probably would have raised the flop similar to QQ&TT. Essentially we're losing the extra $20ish we put in the pot more than we're winning therefore calling seems better.

[The Incompetent-Donkey]

All this doesn't really answer the initial question should we raise the river. I'm leaning towards just calling here vs this opponent. There's maybe 5 combinations of value hands that can pay this off(QJs, 22). But, honestly 22 probably would have raised the flop similar to QQ&TT. Essentially we're losing the extra $20ish we put in the pot more than we're winning therefore calling seems better.

let me get this straight you are willing to give more credit for an opponent to flat AK pre, call a gutter and 2overcards where 1 of his gutters leaves him in a very interesting situation OOP, than to the guy overvalueing T2P on what is really quite a safe river.


On top of that you think Heros hands face up as 66. Couldn't hero be value raising AK as lets face it hero more likely has AK than villain in this case. Standard Cbet then hit nuts kind of thing.

I normally respect your posts a lot but I think it's ridiculous to not think that villain couldn't do this with 22. WATCH
c/c flop tarp
c/r turn tarp
b/3b oh **** he missed the tarp

So even if you give no credit to QJ please for christs sake give credit to 22 at least.

Does Pates ever bluff raise this river?

[bizkit]

On top of that you think Heros hands face up as 66. Couldn't hero be value raising AK as lets face it hero more likely has AK than villain in this case. Standard Cbet then hit nuts kind of thing.

On top of that you think Heros hands face up as 66. Couldn't hero be value raising AK as lets face it hero more likely has AK than villain in this case. Standard Cbet then hit nuts kind of thing.

Does Pates ever bluff raise this river?

It was not my intention to indicate he has 66 100% of the time. It's probably somewhere between 80%-100% depending on how much Platefish bluffs & makes weird checks for deception(which you probably never do against a fairly "unknown" player to you).

A solid player is probably almost never checking AK on a double suited board in a raised pot after continuation betting the flop with last action on the turn when turning the nuts. The only case is for deception where usually you're giving up value so high level thinking opponents with history can make bigger mistakes because they wouldn't expect you to take this type of line.

let me get this straight you are willing to give more credit for an opponent to flat AK pre, call a gutter and 2overcards where 1 of his gutters leaves him in a very interesting situation OOP, than to the guy overvalueing T2P on what is really quite a safe river.

Definitely, you've neglected to mention he's calling a UTG 6max raise OOP with QJo AND now he's shoving a river with this hand he cannot have which is clearly the worst option of the 3 he would have if he had this hand through say a preflop misclick.


I normally respect your posts a lot but I think it's ridiculous to not think that villain couldn't do this with 22. WATCH
c/c flop tarp
c/r turn tarp
b/3b oh **** he missed the tarp

So even if you give no credit to QJ please for christs sake give credit to 22 at least.

22 makes sense in he would probably call preflop. Now he's flopping bottom set and check calling where raising or leading out probably would have been better options. Additionally, he lets a free card come off on a double suited board. Then he decides to go crazy with a 3bet on the river which again in the worst option of the 3 he can take. It's just not very likely IMO.

"Reason: a bit too strong" - lol take it easy man...it'll be ok.

[NoRhino]

yo plates, good to see you moved up to 200nl in the other thread. I had a look at this hand, I think against someone who is playing there hand more than anything you should raise/fold the river. The thing is you really look FOS because you just cant have a straight here yourself... two flush draws out on the turn and you check it back then raise a blank river. Its hard to say but If I was in his shoes I would probably look u up very light and shove a missed draw on you some frequency. His range is 89s/AK and if he can hand read possibly sets if he thinks there's any value (hmm?) but also I think he should add some bluffs to this range so I think even if he was doing this he has too many value hands that play this way from start to finish that beat you, so mm..fold, unless u thought u could induce a good amount given you never have a hand that can call here and u think he knows this etc.

~GL

[Mike]

rofl, I just looked at this thread again. Almost pissed myself at some of these replies.