Beating Microstakes NLHE - PART 1

[Litellio]

Table of Contents.

1. What's a valuebet? And what isn't?
2. What's a bluff? And what isn't?
3. What is "showdown value"? And how can I tell I have any?
4. Piecing the puzzle together.
5. General rules at the microstakes.

Intro

I wanted to make a very basic guide for beating microstakes poker (originally posted this as a sort of 1k post on another forum). I would have benefitted greatly from a strictly ABC guide to poker, concentrating on postflop play. I never found it, and it took me a long time to figure this stuff out, possibly because I'm somewhat dimwitted. I hope some of you will benefit from my stupidity. I present this guide in all modesty: I might be wrong about a lot of things, but I think if you think about the concepts here, you should be well on your way to beating µNL.

Please PM me with any remarks or examples. Maybe I can make a second edition or so after a while. I'm sure I make some fundamental mistakes, and that my examples aren't always great. There's spots where I have doubts myself. I'm just trying to offer a framework for thinking about when you should bet, and when you should check.

The advice here is pretty categoric sometimes. This is because I feel that at the micro's there's no need to be fancy or to bet thin. Just try to get your check/bet/fold decisions optimized, and don't worry about being "exploitable", or "vanilla" or "weaktight". Just try to make money to move beyond 50NL. Also, please don't tell me that all this advice sucks at 100nl and above. I know this already.

1. What's a valuebet, and what isn't?

You have heard a lot about valuebets (usually with the word "thin" in front of it). You should be valuebetting a lot and very "thin". But what is a valuebet?

DEFINITION:
A valuebet is a bet that will be called by enough worse hands to make it a profitable (+EV) move.

Example 1
You raise in MP with , you get a call from the CO.

Flop comes

A bet here is clearly a valuebet, because there's hardly any better hands in villain's range to start with (he would probably 3bet AA, KK and QQ preflop).

Villain will call a bet here with: KQ,QJ,QT,JJ,J9 and maybe some stuff like KT,AT,JT if he thinks your just making a random c-bet with air. Note that we don't beat every hand in his calling range: QT > AQ. It's not important. A valuebet is not a bet that will never get called or raised by better hands. It's a bet that's profitable because *enough* worse hands will call to make it +EV.

Our range for betting here is at least: AA-QQ, AQ,KQ,QJ,AT,KT,55 and lots of broadway cards, gutshots and even air. Villain can easily assume that his second or third best hand is good enough to call here (KQ,QJ, JJ and even AT can easily assume it's good; draws will obv call because of implied odds). So this is clearly a profitable situation, and a bet here is clearly a valuebet.

Note however that I said: *enough* worse hands. This isn't the same as a bet that will be called by worse hands. Theoretically, every bet could be called by worse hands. What you want is to assign a range to villain with *enough* worse hands that will call, so that your bet is profitable.

Example 2
You raise in MP with , you get a call from the CO.

Flop comes

Here, you will and should probably bet your entire PFR range (let's say AK-AT, all PP's, all suited broadways and KQo+). But this is not a valuebet, because although you will be called by worse hands (this is the micro's, they'll call with ATC, right?), there won't be enough of them in villain's range. There's hardly any draws that will peel here, there's a lot of pocket pairs in villain's range that he will call with (and that beat us), and there's even a lot of AX hands that beat us (AK,AQ, A7, A3).

Turn comes

Should you bet? Probably not at the micro's (not sure myself tbh, but I'm inclined to think not). At this point, there is no value whatsoever left in betting. Again: there might be villains who will call here with TT-88, and even bottom pair, and it's easy to think: "I have second pair top kicker kicker, no way he has a Q, I bet." If that is what you regularly do, you have just found the reason why you are not beating microstakes.

This is not a valuebet, because it will never be called by any hand that is worse than yours. In fact, you are folding out every hand that is worse (because they see the Q and the J on board, and they think: 'no way my 77 is good here').

A common expression is that at the microstakes, "you can just take villains to valuetown". I used to think that this meant that I should just keep firing with any piece of the board. It doesn't.

It just means that you should hardly ever bluff (which is the opposite of a valuebet).

It means that, as long as villain's range can reasonably have enough worse hands in it, you can usually keep betting without being afraid that you will be outplayed. It means that, usually, you can go for three streets of value with AT on a T hi board, as long as villain has a reason to believe that his worse hand is good. Also because mostly, villains will announce when they beat TPTK by raising the turn.

Ok, so we check the turn, and villain checks behind.

River comes

Can we valuebet? Yes.

By calling the flop but checking behind on the turn, villain let us know that he has showdown value, but he's not strong enough to valuebet himself. He probably has some middle pocket pair, or A7 or something, or random air. By not betting the turn ourselves, we have announced pretty clearly that we don't have a Q. Since we should bluff here fairly often, villain should call here with a very wide range. KJ,JT,TT-88, maybe A7. Yes, he will sometimes have a set, 2P, AQ, or the gutshot straight with 64. Yes, he will fold his club draws and all the backdoor draws like A5. But all in all, I think we can bet here for value, because villain can and probably should call with enough worse hands to make this a profitable bet.

Do we HAVE to valuebet here? No. If you are not entirely sure of your handreading skills, there is no need to valuebet here at the micro's. This is a "thin" valuebet, but there is enough profit to be made by making "fat" valuebets at the micro's.

Example 3
You raise in CO with , BTN calls.

Flop comes

When we bet, villain can and should call with at least AT,KT,QT,JT,T9,T8, club draws, open ended straight draws and maybe some gutshots with overcards like KQ or so. Plus sets, two pairs, and made straights. Is this a valuebet? Yes. I think it's not even thin, although there's obviously more hands that beat us here than in example 1. You bet, villain calls.

Turn comes , so the board now looks:



If we bet here, are there still worse hands in villains range that he will call us with? This is already a lot thinner. He will probably still call with all his TP hands (AT to T7, let's say). Let's assume his range was evenly distributed between TP hands and draws (FD and SD's). OESD's now came in, he probably won't continue with his gutshots with overs (KQ).

But the chance is higher that he had a FD than a SD, because there's more club draw combinations than combinations of QJ, and villain is somewhat less likely to call a bet with a mere 7X gutshot.

There's only one TP hand we beat anymore (assuming he didn't call with T5 and under), and we beat only the FD's. Nevertheless, a bet here could still be a valuebet, but it will be thin. We bet to get value from FD's and to prevent FD's from getting a free card ("bet for protection"). We will be forced to fold if villain raises.

River comes so the board now looks



We made two pair. What hands will still call us that we beat? The flush draws will fold anyway to a bet. AT and KT will probably fold to any bet, because it is so likely that we have either a J or a 7, based on our betting pattern. It is also very likely that villain has a J or a 7 based on his play. He would probably have raised a 2P like T9 on the flop, and T8 or 98 on the turn, because microstakes players horribly overplay their 2P (it's strong against TP, but it gets outdrawn frequently, so they want to get the money in fast).

Please go to PART 2 - http://www.pokerisrigged.com/showthread.php?t=1843