Heads up strategy

[eleanor60]

ODDS
Odds of Hitting on the Flop:
• Hitting another kind of your pocket pair on the flop: 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• You will pair at least one of your unpaired hole cards on the flop: 2.1 to 1 (32.4%)
• You will hit two pair on the flop with unpaired hole cards: 49 to 1 (2%)
• Hitting two or more of your suit on the flop when you hold suited cards: 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• Hitting a flush on the flop with suited hole cards: 118 to 1 (0.8%)

On the Flop, when you have:
• Four cards to a flush on the flop, you will complete it by the river: 1.9 to 1 (35%)
• Four cards to an open-ended straight on the flop, you will complete it by the river: 2.2 to 1 (32%)
• A gutshot straight draw on the flop, you will complete it by the river: 5.1 to 1 (17%)
• Two pair, you will complete at least a Full House: 5 to 1 (16.7%)
• Three of a kind, you will complete at least a Full House: 2 to 1 (33.4%)
• One pair, you will complete at least three of a kind: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete at least a straight: 0.9 to 1 (54.1%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete it: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)

[eleanor60]

HOW TO WIN HEADS-UP!!
The key requirement, of any wannabe poker superstar is the ability to win a tournament, and whilst endurance, patience, awareness and calculations are all components, ultimately the missing piece of the poker puzzle for a large number of players, is the ability to make an adjustment when they get heads-up.
Heads-up play varies (in the same way all games do) depending on your opponent; however manipulating your opponent to play into your hands is achievable for any player. I will discuss playing heads up STT online, and to provide, what in my opinion, is the optimum strategy to become a successful all round poker player.

Online STT’s
Often, online STT’s start off providing you with a comfortable starting stack, usually in the region of 150 big blinds (BBs), and have a 6- 10 minute clock, so you would expect there to be opportunities for a lot of play, and at least a good hour if not more duration. However, a lot of people will find that it is not rare for them to last no longer than the second level. Before explaining what I feel is the optimum strategy, it seems suitable to explain why it is these STT can end so quickly.
• When you play heads up, as opposed to a full ring or 6 max tournaments, a rotation of the table is just 2!! As obvious as it seems, it is a key thing to remember and a lot of people panic after folding there big blind more than 3 times in a row.
• Whilst hand values increase (no longer is A-6 a questionable opening hand) a lot of players will overrate weaker Aces and Kings, and are often willing to not only 3-bet regularly, but also call all-ins, usually drawing to 3 clear outs.
• Although you start with 150 BBs, there are a lot of weak players who open for 6x, in the long run creating a negative EV. The flip of this, is that there are even more players calling these raises, and sometimes 3 betting, to which they feel the standard 3bet instead of being 3x the raise, make it 4-6x! All of a sudden a situation occurs where 1/3 to 1/2 of the 3betters stack are in the middle, making it increasingly likely that an all-in will occur on the flop.

As mentioned, the strength of starting hands changes once heads up. This is due to the likelihood of facing an opponent whose hand dominates you, decreasing significantly. This can be seen by doing simple, yet vital calculations.
In Holdem, there are 1326 starting hands. This can be calculated by (1/52)X(1/51) = which gives 1326 combinations. If we disregard the combinations of suits for simplicity than these combinations can be reduced to 169. Of these 13 are pairs, 78 are suited unpaired cards, whilst the remaining are 78 unsuited unpaired cards. The cards that you are holding, affect the likeliness of your opponent having the same holding. E.G. If you are dealt an Ace, there are only 3 left in the deck, so the chances of your opponent having an ace have been reduced by 25%.
Here are the odds of being dealt a few, strong hands pre-flop.
• A-A (220/1 or 0.45%)
• A-K (81.9/1 or 1.1%)
• A-A, K-K, Q-Q or 10-10 (54.3/1 or 1.8%)
• Any Pocket Pair (16:1 or 6.25%)
• Any 2 Cards Jack or Higher (10.1/1 or 9.05%)
I have also included the pre-flop odds of selected head-up poker hands
• A-A, wins 84.93% of the time.
• K-K, wins 82.12% of the time
• Q-Q, wins 79.63% of the time.
• J-J, wins, 77.15% of the time
• A-K (suited), wins 64.47% of the time
• K-Q (not suited), wins 60.43% of the time.
• J-10 (suited) wins 56.15% of the time
• K-4 (not suited) wins 50.23% of the time
• Hands below K-4 off suit are not favourite before the flop…
the very worst hand 2-3 (not suited) wins only 29.24% of the time.
Now that a few numbers have been crunched, onto the juicy strategy side
Pre-flop
Position in heads up is huge! The fact that you are on the button, and thus in the small blind pre-flop means that it is generally your decision to dictate how the action will play out. A lot of people argue that limping pre-flop heads-up is wrong, and that you should be raising or folding, and if you’re against a weak opponent who will not notice the trend, than that’s fine, but in the long run, you will not win as much.
You can decide early on, how to represent yourself to your opponent, and your 100+ BB stack facilitates this. Early on, my general play, is to get into as many pots as possible. The table above shows you that 2-3 off-suit wins “only” 29.24% of the time, but on the flip side, it means it wins 1 in 3 random hands. To me, my actual cards pre-flop rarely matter. This means that when an opponent has to act, they will stand next to no chance in putting me on a specific hand as my range is so big. I am aware that this is not to most people’s liking, so instead I will use a general approach in what your action should be pre-flop.
On the button
I tend to use this strategy, and initially this is what I apply to any random cards.
Raising =65%- 2.5x raise- 30%
- 3x raise- 25%
- 3.5x raise- 8%
- 4x (and above) 2%
Calling/limping=25%
Folding=10%
I like the 2.5x raise, as it is quite a nice, gentle number, which will often encourage the opponent to call with a wide rage. Players who are less comfortable playing post-flop tend to raise more, which is fine however remember this. If I raise 2.5x and get reraised I am in a scenario where I can call and not be committing too many chips, 4 bet, to represent more strength, or fold, and not have lost much at all. The other benefit is that if you consistently raise small, you will inadvertently be manipulating your opponent to follow suit. This than allows you to 3bet without committing yourself, and see a lot of flops with a lot more hands!
Early on in these tournaments, your range can be pretty free and easy. Remember you will make a pair on the flop 32.4% of the time. (See the end of the article to find out your chances of making most hands post flop). This means that you can see more flops early on, and the chance you both make a pair is unlikely, thus generally speaking you will have the best hand. I’d advice a calling range early on in a tournament to be:
Suited connectors, pretty much of any value, as long as they are consecutive, up to j-10 suited.
One gap suited connectors, but no lower than 6-8 suited, up to j-9 suited.
Non suited consecutive connectors, from 8-9 to q-j.
All small pocket pairs 2-2, to 77.
And the occasional Ace X.
You should be looking to raise q-k suited upwards., q-10 suited up, kq and ak off suit, 88-AA, and A-10 up.
The later on in the tournament, and the more effected your stack, and your opponent will be, the tighter your range should be. I would advise players to remember how important their opponents stack is. If you have a chip advantage over your opponent later on in a tournament, bear in mind they will be raising with a lot less, as they will be looking for the double up (all though the occasional donk will start panic shoving with K-2) so you should play tighter, as the chances are, if you call or re-raise pre, their chips will all be in the middle by, or on the flop.

Post Flop.
Post flop play is sometimes overlooked. As mentioned early on in tournaments you will want to be playing a wider range, and this is always good. The problem is, once you have raised, how often u continuation bet once you have missed.
If you are the raiser pre flop from the big blind and have missed:
• Bet 2/3 of the pot- 44%
• Bet 1/2 of the pot 26%
• Check-30%
I always feel you should NEVER bet less than 50% of the pot heads up, mainly due to giving your opponents pot odds. (For details on pot odds look around at articles on the net, there are many great ones.) 2/3 shows a lot of strength, and makes it hard for your opponent to re-raise you without a decent holding. It is also good to check when you have missed generally 1 in 3 hands otherwise your opponent will catch on and be re-raising.
If you are the raiser pre flop from the big blind and have connected:
IT IS EXACTLY THE SAME PERCENTAGE AS WHEN YOU MISS!!! Remember you need to vary your play and bet exactly the same whether you hit or miss, key rule heads up- DO NOT GET PREDICTABLE.
If you are the pre flop raiser from the button and have missed, OR connected:
• Bet 2/3 the pot 50%
• Bet 1/2 the pot 30%
• Check 20%
The reasoning behind this change, is that you have position so can really pressurise your opponent. A lot of people would argue to be willing to check more with position, but you do not want your opponent to catch up, or overtake you.
Key points would be that with your draws, and strong hands (2 pair etc.) you can lean towards the check, or bet 1/2 the pot to keep your customer, but remember to remain consistent.

ON THE TURN
If you have bet with nothing, and been called, than if first to act:
• Bet 3/5 the pot 35%
• Check 65%
You do not want to walk into your opponent having a monster, but if a blank has come (i.e. they can’t of made an obvious straight or flush) than you should be betting enough to give them questionable odds to call, and sometimes take it down then and there. Adjust the odds if you’re on the button to 45% raise 55% check.
(N.B ADD 10% to both flop and turn bets if you have re-raised pre.)

ON THE RIVER
If you still have air, than you should be looking to give up, unless a blank has come. Generally speaking your opponent will have better than your air by now!

[eleanor60]

KEY POINTS
• Vary your percentages against different types of players, EG Tight Aggressive, if they re-raise you, will generally have you beat, so adjust accordingly. Similarly you should be looking to re-raise loose aggressive, or check and let them lead out... try and work this out yourself.
• Try and figure out yourself using my structure, what you should be doing post flop if you have called a raise, or limped. It shouldn’t be too hard to work out... but remember do not be obvious.
• You should only be moving all in when there is no way you are behind. People who 3bet all in post flop without a strong hand, will lose more tournaments than they win, as good players will only call with a hand that beats you.
• Try to avoid all ins pre flop unless you have QQ-AA, and AK. A-Q remember, is only 3/2 favourite over 2 lower cards, and behind to a lot of pairs. You do not want to be flipping for your tournament life; there are a lot better spots to get your money in AHEAD!
• The percentages provided for action are just guides, there is no need to be strict and try and stick to them EXACTLY!
• I am not saying my strategy is the only way, but it has worked for me. It may feel strange initially, but if you remain disciplined, and stick to the strategy, you will return a nice profit.
• REMBER TO ONLY PLAY AT A LEVEL THAT YOU CAN AFFORD... DO NOT RUSH TO GET HIGHER, IT WILL COME WITH DISCIPLINE!!!
• GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY

[James]

wow nice post here, i will read through later but this will definitely compete for the article competition if it is unique!